Rocked by off-the-pitch turmoil, Japan will take on Iran as Ueda’s strong form and fast breaks could be keys in de facto final

Lights are usually followed by shadows.

After Japan had won over Bahrain 3-1 to reach the quarter-final against Iran, an off-the-pitch issue cast dark clouds over the team. On 31 January, a report in a Japanese weekly magazine revealed that Junya Ito, one of the major attacking forces for Samurai Blue, has been criminally charged with sexual assault.

The 30-year-old winger sat on a bench for the Bahrain match on the day when the report emerged. The next day, Ito didn’t show up for team training and the Japan Football Association announced that the Stade Reims player had been ruled out of the team “in consideration of his mental and physical condition”. A few hours later, the JFA corrected it and stated that Ito’s withdrawal from the team would be put on hold, but the following day, 2 February, the organisation announced again that Ito had left the team after review.

There was a big gap between the woman who filed the complaint and Ito’s side in this case, with Ito insisting on his innocence. The case has even led to a counterclaim for a false accusation.

Ito’s innocence is not yet clear, as the facts are currently being investigated. Even if the allegations are proven to be true, they will have a huge impact not only on the footballer but also on the Japan national team, which are preparing for a crucial match against Iran.

However, despite the turmoil in Japan, the team’s condition has been improving steadily. After the defeat to Iraq, the instability seen in the early stages of the tournament disappeared, with two consecutive 3-1 wins over Indonesia and Bahrain.

Ayase Ueda is particularly encouraging. Having recorded one goal in the opening fixture versus Vietnam after playing only the second half, the Feyenoord striker started the last two matches and scored two goals against Indonesia as well as one in the quarter-final. With strength, skill, and powerful shot, the number nine has been decisive in the tournament with four goals and should play an important role against Iran.

On the right flank, where now Ito is absent, Ritsu Doan is regaining his rhythm, scoring one goal against Bahrain. Takefusa Kubo can also play in this position, so the hole left by Ito should be minimised. With the likes of Takumi Minamino, Keito Nakamura and Kaoru Mitoma who has just returned, there is no doubt that the attacking second row is one of the strongest points for Japan.

The defence led by Takehiro Tomiyasu and Ko Itakura also showed no signs of weakness. Another positive aspect of the Bahrain match was the dynamic performance of the right-back Seiya Maikuma. The Cerezo Osaka full-back has not only excellent positional sense, dispatching a sharp middle shot from the midfield which led to their opener, but also defensive ability and a high level of concentration. In a team made up mainly of players from European clubs, the 26-year-old player is one of the revelations in this tournament.

Depth in the defensive midfield positions might be concerned

One concern is the condition of Wataru Endo. After competing four full matches, can the captain and the heart of the team maintain his duelling prowess against Iran with two days rest? Another major blow is that the other central midfielder Reo Hatate got injured in the round of 16 and left the squad now. Hidemasa Morita should partner with Endo in the quarter-final, but the fear for the squad depth in midfield lingeres with only inexperienced Kaishu Sano as backup.

The choice of goalkeeper is also likely to be a key factor. Zion Suzuki has played four full games in the Asian Cup but his performance has been far from stable, conceding six goals in four matches. Therefore last season’s J.League winning goalkeeper, Vissel Kobe’s Daiya Maekawa, could be selected.

But Iran has problems too. They won three consecutive group matches against Palestine, Hong Kong and the UAE, but in the round of 16, they were smothered by Syria and only managed a narrow victory after a penalty shoot-out. In other words, Team Melli played 120 minutes and will have a crucial match against Japan with two days off, so they also have conditioning concerns. 

Also, Mehdi Taremi was sent off against Syria and will not be available for the match against Japan. The absence of the ace, who has scored three goals in the tournament, should be a tailwind for Japan.

Of course, even in Taremi’s absence, Japan can’t afford to let their guard down as Iran have some European players in their attack, including Roma’s Serdar Azmun and Feyenoord’s Alireza Jahanbakhsh. Unlike in the past, when Japan enjoyed ball possession, there must be times when Japan will be pushed this time.

Therefore, Japan need shrewdness and patience. Sometimes, they might let Iran possess the ball for Japan to dispatch fast breaks in the right moments with its pacy front line.

The record of both team’s encounters is exactly equal, with six wins, five draws and six defeats. The last time the two sides met was in the semi-finals of the last tournament in 2019, and Japan won 3-0.

In addition, Japan’s FIFA ranking is 17th, while Iran is ranked 21st. The match-up between the two countries ranked best and second best in Asia, could be seen as a de facto final. The winning side will take one big step closer to the summit of Asia.