FOOTPICKS’ 2024 J1 League Predicted Tables #2

Kawasaki look to contend for their fifth league title

1: Kawasaki Frontale
2: Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3: Yokohama F. Marinos
4: Urawa Reds
5: Cerezo Osaka
6: FC Tokyo
7: Vissel Kobe
8: Nagoya Grampus
9: Kashima Antlers
10: FC Machida Zelvia
11: Albirex Niigata
12: Kashiwa Reysol
13: Gamba Osaka
14: Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
15: Kyoto Sanga FC
16: Avispa Fukuoka
17: Sagan Tosu
18: Shonan Bellmare
19: Tokyo Verdy
20: Júbilo Iwata

Kawasaki Frontale, Sanfrecce Hiroshima, and Yokohama F. Marinos seem ready to contend for the title, from the basic standpoints such as the squads, the managers, and experience. Urawa Reds, who won the AFC Champions League last season with their solid defensive tactics and creative attackers, should be another candidate with aggressive reinforcements.

J1 is quite an unpredictable league. There is no real “big club” in this country, and the home advantage seems much less than in Europe or South America, so the title contenders are more likely to be defeated by small clubs than other leagues. These facts can be reasons for uncertainty, but there is a much more influential factor in this league — the summer transfer window. Promising young talents and high-quality players are keen to move to Europe in the middle of J1 season when the European leagues finish, and that could destroy the premise of a prediction.

Considering these elements, from my perspective, Kawasaki’s squad has fewer such risks but a solid understanding of the tactics built by the long-term manager, Toru Oniki, with seven titles in the last seven years.

Surviving race appears to be more predictable than the title race this season. As so many players left and joined Tokyo Verdy and Júbilo Iwata, it simply looks like they are not prepared for severe games against J1 clubs. Shonan Bellmare could be struggling to score since they lost the ace striker Yuki Ohashi, who had netted 13 times last season, which was a third of Shonan’s total goals.

It is ineluctable to mention the team having made a superb run last season in the J2 league — FC Machida Zelvia. They accumulated 87 points, the second highest in J2 history, under the strong leadership of a former high school teacher, Go Kuroda. For their maiden challenge in the top tier, the owner, one of the most famous IT companies in Japan, bought quality players such as Gen Shoji. Even though it is very unlikely that they would be a title contender, there is a potential.

(by Lynn Sakashita)

Heavily invested Urawa could get the J1 title back since 2006

1: Urawa Reds
2: Vissel Kobe
3: Sanfrecce Hiroshima
4: Nagoya Grampus
5: Kawasaki Frontale
6: Yokohama F. Marinos
7: FC Tokyo
8: Kashima Antlers
9: Gamba Osaka
10: Albirex Niigata
11: Cerezo Osaka
12: Avispa Fukuoka
13: FC Machida Zelvia
14: Kashiwa Reysol
15: Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
16: Sagan Tosu
17: Jubilo Iwata
18: Kyoto Sanga FC
19: Tokyo Verdy
20: Shonan Bellmare

Vissel Kobe claimed their maiden J1 championship last year, and look set to be among the key title contenders again in 2024.

Takayuki Yoshida has not only managed to keep all of his key performers from last season but has also supplemented his squad well in the transfer market, with solid acquisitions like Rikuto Hirose, Takuya Iwanami, Yosuke Ideguchi, Yuya Kuwasaki, and Taisei Miyashiro all adding strength in depth.

The only team to have carried out better off-season recruitment is Urawa Reds, which is why I’ve got them to just about pip Vissel to the post.

Reds had the strongest defence in J1 last year and the solid central defensive partnership of Alexander Scholz and Marius Høibråten remains intact, while in midfield and attack, they have an embarrassment of riches.

Naoki Maeda, Ryoma Watanabe, and Thiago Santana have all arrived from other J.League sides, with Ola Solbakken, Samuel Gustaffson, and the returning Yusuke Matsuo also being added to the likes of Atsuki Ito, Shoya Nakajima, Hiroki Abe, Ekanit Panya, and Tomoaki Okubo.

Whether new manager Per-Mathias Høgmo is able to keep all these players happy to fashion a title-winning side remains to be seen, but he certainly has all the ingredients at his disposal.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima don’t have the same depth in their squad as Vissel or Urawa, but with Michael Skibbe heading into his third season in charge they do have impressive foundations in place to make them serious contenders.

If Keisuke Osako and the back three of Sho Sasaki, Hayato Araki, and Tsukasa Shiotani can stay fit then Sanfrecce have one of the best defences in the league, while Takumu Kawamura, Makoto Mitsuta, Marcos Junior, Mutsuki Kato, and Yuki Ohashi offer a range of threats going forward.

If everything clicks then there’s no reason Sanfrecce couldn’t be christening their shiny new stadium with a first J.League triumph since 2015.

Prior to Vissel’s success last year Kawasaki Frontale and Yokohama F. Marinos had shared the previous six titles between them but I only see each being among the chasing pack this year, with Frontale in the midst of a rebuild and Marinos not looking as strong as last season and having a new and inexperienced manager in Harry Kewell.

As I outlined here Nagoya Grampus are my dark horse to push the others all the way to the top, while several similar names look set for another battle against relegation at the wrong end of the table.

Shonan Bellmare and Kyoto Sanga could finally succumb to the drop this time around, with neither looking any stronger than last season, while the promoted Tokyo Verdy and Jubilo Iwata are likely also set for long seasons.

Last year’s J2 champions Machida Zelvia could surprise a few people though, and as long as they get off to a steady start I think they should have enough to keep themselves comfortably away from the drop-zone on their debut in the top flight.

(by Sean Carroll)