Asian Cup disappointment should encourage Japan to embrace chaos

Japan’s 2-1 defeat to Iran in the quarter-finals of the Asian Cup has prompted the usual fall-out and soul-searching, but ultimately the Samurai Blue lost because as so often before they were unable to adapt to the in-game situation.

This was partly Hajime Moriyasu’s fault – the manager really should have replaced Ko Itakura at half-time as he was clearly not right, and the midfield certainly could have done with some bolstering as Iran seized control of proceedings – and partly the players’ fault, with too many individual errors across the 90 minutes.

The first half went very well for the most part, with Japan more than matching the physicality and desire of the Iranians and managing to take the lead through Hidemasa Morita’s slightly fortuitous but nicely-made goal.

Things dropped off drastically after the break though, and as Iran steadily grew in confidence and added increasing power to their offensive assault it became a case of when and not if they struck the decisive blow – which ultimately came after a comical mix-up between Itakura and Takehiro Tomiyasu gifted Iran their decisive penalty in the 93rd minute.

Wataru Endo has also come in for criticism from some quarters for his below-par displays at the competition, and while the responsibility for their elimination doesn’t rest on the captain’s shoulders alone his role is to anchor the team from the middle of the park and the bridge between defence and attack was almost non-existent in the closing stages against Iran.

Of course, there have been similar defeats for Japan over the years with previous players wearing the armband and that doesn’t mean the blame for those disappointments should be apportioned to Maya Yoshida, Makoto Hasebe, or Tsuneyasu Miyamoto. Football teams sometimes lose matches, and except for very few exceptions it is never the fault of just one individual. Endo has proven his ability to lead over the years at Shonan Bellmare, Urawa Reds, VfB Stuttgart, and now Liverpool, and he remains integral to his country’s chances of success in the coming years.

Japan would become vulnerable once they lose control

I would argue that the main cause of the Samurai Blue’s elimination is the fact that they struggle once games veer into chaos.

Japan are a team built upon order, patterns of play, and guidelines. Once control is taken away from them – when, for instance, teams like Iran or Iraq throw men forward and pepper them with direct, unpredictable attacks – they invariably struggle to play to their strengths.

This was evident in the panic that crept in and then spread throughout the side as Iran bombarded them for much of the last quarter of the game in Al Rayyan, with usually-unflustered characters like Tomiyasu looking shaky in defence and even the composed likes of Takefusa Kubo and Ritsu Doan seeming devoid of ideas or confidence going forwards.

For all that though, Japan were still seconds away from making it into extra-time, at which point they could have re-grouped, tweaked tactics, and instead gone on to claim victory in extra time or penalties – just as South Korea did when snatching victory from defeat against Saudi Arabia and Australia in the Round of 16 and quarter-finals.

At these tournaments, the margins are incredibly fine, especially once you progress into the latter stages. Just as Japan learned at the Asian Cup against Qatar in 2019 and UAE in 2015 – or, for that matter, Croatia at the 2022 World Cup or Belgium in Russia in 2018 – if you’re not at your very best you’re not going to come out on top, and in the second half against Iran Japan were nowhere near their best.

The fact the team are so often on the wrong end of these results is of course a concern, but heading into the Asian Cup you’d have said knockout games against Iran, South Korea, Australia, or Saudi Arabia could realistically go either way, and that was ultimately the case.

Notwithstanding the fact that such tags are hugely subjective (not to mention entirely pointless), it isn’t unreasonable to still call this the ‘best Japanese squad ever’ but that doesn’t mean they are guaranteed glory. Just like countless ‘golden generations’ from the past – Portugal and England in the early-to-mid 2000s and Belgium in the 2010s spring immediately to mind – Japan has no divine right to win any competition, and they, like 22 of the other competing nations in Qatar, ultimately left empty-handed.

Just as we can read too much into elongated winning runs in friendly matches, it is also possible to attach too much significance to defeats as well. On the day Japan were beaten by a better team in Iran, one that sensed a weakness and seized their moment to capitalise upon it.

The biggest lesson Japan should have learned over the past month is that they can’t always be in control – that if they want to truly push on and become a team capable of celebrating instead of lamenting at full-time in the biggest games that it is okay for them to not always be in control.

They absolutely have the players capable of thriving in such environments, they just need to be given the freedom and confidence to do so. Instead of fearing it, perhaps it is time for Japan to embrace the chaos.